The most profitable phase of every bull market is the quiet one and i can not help but think that this is exactly where we are now.
Last month, momentum indicators were hinting at a potential Stage 2 to Stage 3 transition.
Fast-forward to now, the data says otherwise: the market cooled down further, entering what can only be described as the boredom zone.
Here’s the full breakdown .
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According to @coinglass_com's Bull Market Peak Indicators, the overall cycle progress has slipped to ~48%.
That means less than half of long-term top signals are active which is a clear sign we’re still far from overheating.
• 0 / 30 peak signals triggered
• Average progress ≈ 48%
• Holding zone = 100%
• Sell zone = 0%
This means that wirh no major top in sight, the market is currently consolidating.
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Key Indicator Movements (Oct to Nov)
• Altcoin Season Index: 68 to 41signaling capital returning to majors.
• Bitcoin Dominance: ≈ 59%
• Long-Term Holder Supply: up to 15.03 M BTC signalling strong conviction.
• Short-Term Holder Supply: up to 24.6%
• Reserve Risk: ≈ 0.0021 (low) which is still deep in the “confidence zone.”
• MVRV Ratio: 1.83 ( down from 2+)
• RSI (22 Day): ≈ 42
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None of the classic macro peaks (Pi Cycle Top, Puell Multiple, Rainbow, 2-Year MA Multiplier) are close to firing.
Each sits 40–60% below historical sell thresholds.
• Pi Cycle Top: 49% progress
• Puell Multiple: 37%
• Golden Ratio: 77%
• Bitcoin Trend Indicator: 88% (but not yet hot)
This is classic mid-cycle structure.
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Every bull run passes through this “flatline” between retail euphoria and institutional acceleration.
Funding rates cool, search trends drop, and social activity fades.
Yet, onchain conviction strengthens:
• Long-term holders are accumulating, not distributing.
• Exchange reserves stay low.
• institutions remain net buyers for ETF outflows.
This data profile looks similar to mid-2020 and Q1 2021 when RSI hovered in the 40s, MVRV was below 2, and Reserve Risk stayed under 0.005.
What followed wasn’t capitulation but a reignited market.
Cycles often reset before they run and i think this will not be an exception.
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Strategy Outlook :
• Accumulate BTC & ETH while macro metrics stay below 70%.
• Trim alts that still carry high MVRV or thin liquidity.
• This phase often lasts 4–8 weeks before the next acceleration so be patient.
• Use RSI resets as re-entry points
The data is dull but dull is bullish in this case.
Markets evolve rapidly, and so do the signals indicating our position in the cycle. Last month, the data clearly placed us in Stage 2 (Mid Bull) with early signs of acceleration.
Today, we remain in Mid Bull but are edging closer to the transition from Stage 2 to Stage 3.
We didn't accelerate directly into Late Bull; instead, we experienced a healthy reset, particularly evident in RSI and CBBI. This reset allows the uptrend to continue without overheating, keeping the market extendable rather than exhausted.
(See the infographic attached for a summary of Progression: Last Month vs Now.)
Currently, these key indicators are on our watchlist, hovering just below late-stage thresholds:
• Bitcoin MVRV Ratio (72% to 80%+): nearing overvaluation territory.
• Bitcoin Reserve Risk (48% to 55%): indicating a slight weakening in long-term conviction.
• Short-Term Holder Supply (74% to 78%): speculative capital continues to flow in.
• Bitcoin Mayer Multiple (51% to 67%): gradually approaching historical peak zones.
If these indicators exceed 80–85%, Stage 3 will be officially confirmed.
Even with the progression, several macro indicators remain well below danger zones:
- Ahr999 Index (26% to 24%): Miners are still comfortable.
- ETF Outflows (0 days to still low): Institutions remain net buyers.
- Bitcoin Bubble Index (<20%): Nowhere near mania.
- RHODL Ratio (~25%): Still deep in the “safe zone.”
Strategy From Here:
- Ride the trend, as the uptrend remains intact.
- Buy dips with precision; the RSI reset provides entry windows.
- Gradually rotate into BTC/ETH as metrics cross above 80%.
- Trim overextended alts, especially in high-MVRV sectors like memes.
Bottom Line:
We’re still in Stage 2 (Mid Bull), but we are edging closer to the ignition point. Instead of overheating, the market has taken a breather, which extends the cycle rather than concluding it.
If the current momentum persists, Stage 3 (Late Bull) is likely to activate within 1–2 months.
This is the prime time to compound aggressively, but it's also the moment when exit plans should start becoming intentional, not emotional.
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